Next Generation of IPCC SSP Climate Change Scenarios for Colombia in High Spatial Resolution Using CMIP6 Models Under WMO Prediction Standards Nueva generación de escenarios de cambio climático SSP del IPCC para Colombia en alta resolución espacial utilizando modelos CMIP6 bajo los estándares de predicción de la OMM

Resumen

In august 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released new findings on the next generation of climate change scenarios, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). These scenarios illustrate projected changes in temperature and precipitation throughout the 21st century under four climate change models, based on approximately 33 low-resolution simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The primary objective of these findings is to enable statistical downscaling, generating high-resolution climate projections at the national level. This process adheres to the prediction standards established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which recommend using multiple models calibrated for spatial patterns and delivering forecasts in a flexible format, such as probability density functions. The next generation of climate change scenarios predicts a mean temperature increase of 1.1 °C to 2.0 °C under the SSP1-2.6 scenario and 3.5 °C to 6.2 °C under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by the end of the 21st century, relative to the 1981-2010 reference climatology. The most significant temperature increases are expected in the southern Caribbean, the central and southern Andes, and extensive areas of the Orinoco and Amazon regions. Regardless of the scenario, annual precipitation volumes are not projected to change significantly compared to the current climate. However, according to Lang’s climate classification, these shifts suggest that the Caribbean and parts of the Andean region may transition from semi-arid to arid conditions, while sections of the Amazon could shift from super-humid to humid climates.